Mulsanne Group Holding (HKSE:01817) Predictability Rank

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What is Mulsanne Group Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mulsanne Group Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mulsanne Group Holding (HKSE:01817) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Mulsanne Group Holding Ltd (HKSE:01817) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 111, Shanshan Road, Wangchan Industrial Park, Haishu District, Zhejiang Province, Ningbo, CHN

Website

http://www.gxggroup.cn

Mulsanne Group Holding Ltd is an investment holding company. The Company's subsidiaries are engaged in the design, marketing and sale of apparel products. The operating segments of the company are Offline channels; Online channels and Others. The majority of the revenue is generated through Offline channels. The company generates revenue in Mainland China.

Executives

Yu Yong	2101 Beneficial owner
L Catterton Gp, Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mckee Hand David	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Crescent Gp Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Crescent Glory Singapore Pte. Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner
Crescent Capital Investments Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yang Herong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Madison International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Gxg Trading Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
L Catterton, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
L Catterton Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Catterton Holdings, Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
L Catterton Asia Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
L Catterton Asia Advisors	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
L Capital Asia 2 Sing Lp	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Mulsanne Group Holding (HKSE:01817) Headlines

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