Chengdu Expressway Co (HKSE:01785) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is Chengdu Expressway Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chengdu Expressway Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Chengdu Expressway Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chengdu Expressway Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Chengdu Expressway Co (HKSE:01785) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Chengdu Expressway Co Ltd (HKSE:01785) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 66 Shenghe 1st Road, 9th Floor, Chengnan Tianfu Building, High-Tech Zone, Sichuan, Chengdu, CHN

Website

https://www.chengdugs.com

Chengdu Expressway Co Ltd is principally engaged in the operation, management and development of expressways located in and around Chengdu, Sichuan Province. Meanwhile, the Group also carries out retail of refined oil and operation of CNG. It operates in two reportable segments the Expressway segment segment comprises the construction, operation and maintenance of toll expressways located in Sichuan province; and the Energy Investment segment comprises the operation of petrol stations and a gas station and sales of refined oil and compressed natural gas. It derives majority of the revenue from Expressway segment.

Executives

Cheng Du Tian Fu Xin Qu Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Du Tian Fu Zi Ben Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2305 Beneficiary of a trust
Fu Guo Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2102 Investment manager
Guang Dong Sheng Jiao Tong Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xin Yue You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Du Shi Xie Cheng Zi Chan Guan Li You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Du Gui Dao Jiao Tong Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Du Cheng Jian Tou Zi Guan Li Ji Tuan You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Du Huan Jing Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Du Chan Ye Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Du Xian Jin Zhi Zao Chan Ye Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Du Gui Dao Chan Ye Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Du Jiao Zi Jin Rong Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si Qian Cheng Cheng Du Jin Rong Kong Gu Ji T	2101 Beneficial owner

Chengdu Expressway Co (HKSE:01785) Headlines

No Headlines