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Sunfonda Group Holdings (HKSE:01771) Predictability Rank


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What is Sunfonda Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sunfonda Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sunfonda Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sunfonda Group Holdings (HKSE:01771) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Sunfonda Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01771) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01293 HKSE:06909 HKSE:00970 HKSE:01130 HKSE:01959 HKSE:03836 HKSE:08126 HKSE:01872 HKSE:01728 TPE:2207 KMX PAG XBRU:DIE LAD HKSE:00881 AN TSE:4732 ABG GPI LSE:INCH
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1555 Ouya 1st Road, Sunfonda Automobile Center, Beichen Avenue, Shaanxi Province, Chanba Ecological District, Xi’an, CHN, 710021
Website
https://www.sunfonda.com.cn
Sunfonda Group Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. The company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the sale and service of luxury and ultra-luxury car brands in Mainland China. The Group operates in one business unit based on its products, and has one reportable segment, which is the sale of motor vehicles and the provision of related services. In 2021, the Linxia GAC Toyota store in Gansu, the Wuhan BMW store, the Wuxi GAC Toyota store, were successively put into operation, of which the Wuhan BMW Store has the first 4S store of the Group in Central China. In addition, the Group has been authorized to set up new stores including Xi'an Porsche, Yinchuan BMW and Xining BMW and pending commencement of business.
Executives
Golden Speed Enterprises Limited
Top Wheel Limited
Win Force Enterprises Limited
Chiu Man
Wu Tak Lam
Rays Capital Partners Limited 2102 Investment manager
Ruan David Ching Chi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Asian Equity Special Opportunities Portfolio Master Fund Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

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