Risecomm Group Holdings (HKSE:01679) Predictability Rank

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What is Risecomm Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Risecomm Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Risecomm Group Holdings (HKSE:01679) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Risecomm Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01679) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Xili Street, 41st Floor, Block A, Building 8, Shenzhen International Innovation Valley, Nanshan Distric, Shenzhen, CHN, 518055

Website

https://www.risecomm.com.cn

Risecomm Group Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. It operates in two business segments namely, Automated Meter Reading (AMR) and other includes design, development, and sale of power line communication products and energy-saving and environmental protection products and solutions used in streetlight control, building energy management, photovoltaic power management, and providing maintenance services in connections with the deployment and upgrading of AMR systems in PRC; and Smart manufacturing & industrial automation (SMIA) business segment includes the sales of the software license, safety products as well as the provision of software post-contract customers support services. It generates revenue from AMR business. Geographically, it derives revenue from the PRC.

Executives

Fu Xiaoqin	2101 Beneficial owner
Xindaxin Group Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Silver Castle International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yan Andrew Y	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Yueshi	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sb Asia Investment Fund Ii L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner
Saif Partners Ii Lp	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Saif Ii Gp Lp	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Saif Ii Gp Capital Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cisco Systems, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Bei Bei	2101 Beneficial owner
Yu Lu	2101 Beneficial owner
Ding Zhigang	2101 Beneficial owner
Ning Jun	2101 Beneficial owner
Spitzer Fund Vi L.p.

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