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Yee Hop Holdings (HKSE:01662) Predictability Rank


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What is Yee Hop Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yee Hop Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Yee Hop Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Yee Hop Holdings (HKSE:01662) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Yee Hop Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01662) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:08246 HKSE:00611 HKSE:02295 HKSE:02132 HKSE:01489 HKSE:00406 HKSE:08021 HKSE:00498 HKSE:00924 HKSE:08360 XPAR:DG NSE:LT SHSE:601668 PWR SHSE:601390 J TSX:WSP HKSE:01800 SHSE:601186 XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
19 Lam Lok Street, Units 1104-06, Nan Fung Commercial Centre, Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.yee-hop.com.hk
Yee Hop Holdings Ltd is an investment company. The company's operating segment includes Foundation and other civil works; Tunneling works and Premises revitalization and enhancement. It generates maximum revenue from the Foundation and other civil works segments. The services of the company include the construction of mini-piles, rock-socketed steel H-piles, driven steel H piles, and other civil works. Geographically, the company derives majority of its revenue from Hong Kong and has a presence in PRC and the Philippines.
Executives
Lee Sze Wing Mabel 2202 Interest of your spouse
Chui Mo Ming 2101 Beneficial owner
Jj1318 Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Jim Yin Kwan Jackin 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Junmin 2101 Beneficial owner

Yee Hop Holdings (HKSE:01662) Headlines

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