China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co (HKSE:01606) Predictability Rank

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What is China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co (HKSE:01606) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co Ltd (HKSE:01606) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2C6:Germany

Address

No. 2003 Fuzhong, Third Road, CDB Financial Center, Futian District, Guangdong Province, Shenzhen, CHN, 518026

Website

http://www.cdb-leasing.com

China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co Ltd is engaged in providing leasing services to customers in industries such as aviation, infrastructure, shipping, commercial vehicle, and construction machinery. The operating business segments are Aircraft Leasing, Infrastructure Leasing, Ship Leasing, Inclusive Finance, and Other Leasing businesses. The activities of the company include finance lease business, accepting lease deposits, interbank lending, an project consultancy, and providing a guarantee.

Executives

Central Huijin Investment Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Zai Bao Xian Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Ubs Group Ag	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Quan Guo She Hui Bao Zhang Ji Jin Li Shi Hui	2101 Beneficial owner
Bank Of China Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
San Xia Zi Ben Kong Gu You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Zhang Jiang San Xia Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cssc International Holding Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
State-owned Assets Supervision And Administration Commission	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Chuan Bo Gong Ye Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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