China Art Financial Holdings (HKSE:01572) Predictability Rank

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What is China Art Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Art Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Art Financial Holdings (HKSE:01572) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » China Art Financial Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01572) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CHFHF:USA

Address

63 Jingyi South Road, Yicheng Street, Jiangsu Province, Yixing City, CHN

Website

http://www.cnartfin.com.hk

China Art Financial Holdings Ltd is an art finance service provider in China. It is engaged in operating art financing channels. The operating business segments of the company are Art and asset pawn business; Art and asset auction business, and Art and asset sales business. The company auctions products like Zisha artwork, Calligraphies and paintings, Jewel artwork, and others. Geographically, the company has a business presence in China and Hong Kong, of which a majority of the revenue is derived from China. The group's revenue is principally derived from PRC.

Executives

Zhongtai International Asset Management (singapore) Pte. Ltd.	2102 Investment manager
Lai Wing Lun	2104 Agent
Arab Osman Mohammed	2104 Agent
Win Win Stable No.5 Fund Sp	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Xu Min	2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Zhou Jianyuan	2202 Interest of your spouse
Zhang Xiaoxing	2202 Interest of your spouse
Yubo Investment Co. Ltd	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Zhongliang	2202 Interest of your spouse
Fan Qinzhi	2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Wu Jian	2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Wang Jiansong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mauve Jade Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Intelligenesis Investment Co., Ltd	2101 Beneficial owner
Golden Sand Investment Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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