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Cowell e Holdings (HKSE:01415) Predictability Rank


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What is Cowell e Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cowell e Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cowell e Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cowell e Holdings (HKSE:01415) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cowell e Holdings Inc (HKSE:01415) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01888 HKSE:06088 HKSE:00710 HKSE:01478 HKSE:00259 HKSE:00732 HKSE:00580 HKSE:00698 HKSE:00031 HKSE:00040 APH TPE:2317 TEL SZSE:002475 TSE:6981 TPE:2308 GLW XKRX:006400 SZSE:000725 JBL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1 Songbai Road, Huanan Industrial Zone, Liaobu Town, Guangdong Province, Dongguan City, CHN
Website
http://www.cowelleholdings.com
Cowell e Holdings Inc supplies camera modules for mobile devices. The company designs develop, manufactures, and sells camera modules for smartphones, multimedia tablets and other mobile devices with camera functions. In addition, it also develops and manufactures optical components used in consumer electronics products. It operates in a single segment namely consisting of a Camera module and Optical components. It derives revenue from the manufacturing and sale of camera modules and optical components.
Executives
Guangzhou Luxvisions Innovation Technology Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Luxsan Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Luxvisions Innovation Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Laijiao 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Laixi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Laichun 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Laisheng 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Cowell e Holdings (HKSE:01415) Headlines

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