C Banner International Holdings (HKSE:01028) Predictability Rank

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What is C Banner International Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C Banner International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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C Banner International Holdings (HKSE:01028) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » C Banner International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01028) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18 Harcourt Road, Suite 1503, Level 15, Admiralty Centre Tower 1, Admiralty, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.cbanner.com.cn

C Banner International Holdings Ltd is a footwear retailer in China that sells mid-to-premium women's formal and casual footwear. Most of the company's revenue comes from its Retail and Wholesale of Shoe segment. The company generates revenue in that segment by selling self-developed and licensed footwear brands through department stores, independent retail stores, and online. Brands include C.banner, Eblan, Sundance, Mio, Natursun, Badgley Mischka, and United Nude. Other segments include Contract Manufacturing of Footwear, where C Banner manufactures shoes for export for international companies, and Retail of Toys, where the company sells through Hamleys toy stores. Most of the company's sales are generated in China.

Executives

Orchid Valley Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Xuanxuan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hongguo International Group Limited
Chen Yixi
Port Bliss Holdings Limited
Leung Lok Hang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oci International Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Jie	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hua Rong Hua Qiao Zi Chan Guan Li Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Hua Rong Zi Chan Guan Li Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Huarong International Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Utah State Retirement Investment Fund	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Utah Retirement Systems	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Eight Dragons Investments Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Arch Capital Group Ltd	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

C Banner International Holdings (HKSE:01028) Headlines

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