C&D Newin Paper & Pulp (HKSE:00731) Predictability Rank

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What is C&D Newin Paper & Pulp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C&D Newin Paper & Pulp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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C&D Newin Paper & Pulp (HKSE:00731) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » C&D Newin Paper & Pulp Corp Ltd (HKSE:00731) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 168–200, Connaught Road Central, Rooms 2306B & 2307, 23rd Floor, West Tower, Shun Tak Centre, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.cndnewin.com

C&D Newin Paper & Pulp Corp Ltd is engaged in manufacturing, trading, and marketing of paper products, property development as well as leasing of investment properties. It is also engaged in trading of consumable aeronautic parts and providing marine services. The group's customers are mainly based in Hong Kong and the PRC. The company has carried on a single business segment under continuing operations, which is the manufacturing and selling of paper products.

Executives

Sha Men Jian Fa Jiang Zhi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si
Sha Men Jian Fa Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si
Sha Men Jian Fa Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si
Sha Men Shi Ren Min Zheng Fu Guo You Zi Chan Jian Du Guan Li Wei Yuan Hui
Ncd Investment Holding Limited
Hong Kong Paper Sources Co., Limited
Lai Kar Yan (in The Capacity As A Receiver)	2501 Other
Ho Kwok Leung Glen (in The Capacity As A Receiver)	2501 Other
Kam Chung Hang	2501 Other
Strong Determine Limited	2501 Other
Lee Seng Jin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sham Yee Lan Peggy	2202 Interest of your spouse
Quinselle Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Xsd Investment Holding Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xsd International Pte. Ltd.

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