Irico Group New Energy Co (HKSE:00438) Predictability Rank

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What is Irico Group New Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Irico Group New Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Irico Group New Energy Co (HKSE:00438) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Irico Group New Energy Co Ltd (HKSE:00438) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 1 Caihong Road, Qingdu District, Shaanxi Province, Xianyang, CHN, 712021

Website

http://www.irico.com.cn/en

Irico Group New Energy Co Ltd is mainly engaged in the solar photovoltaic business. It operates through the following segments: Solar photovoltaic & module business segment, and Others. The majority of its revenue is derived from Solar Photovoltaic, which includes Solar photovoltaic glass, Solar photovoltaic modules, Solar photovoltaic power stations, and Quartz sand business. Its geographical segments are China (excluding Hong Kong), Hong Kong, and Other countries, of which the majority of its revenue comes from China.

Executives

Xian Yang Zhong Dian Cai Hong Ji Tuan Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Dian Jin Tou Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Guo Dian Zi Xin Xi Chan Ye Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cai Hong Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hua An Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2501 Other
Hua An Ji Jin Xin Cheng Dan Yi Zi Chan Guan Li Ji Hua	2501 Other
He Fei Xin Cheng Guo You Zi Chan Jing Ying You Xian Gong Si	2501 Other
Pactera Technologies Na, Inc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Irico Group New Energy Co (HKSE:00438) Headlines

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