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Yuan Heng Gas Holdings (HKSE:00332) Predictability Rank


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What is Yuan Heng Gas Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yuan Heng Gas Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Yuan Heng Gas Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Yuan Heng Gas Holdings (HKSE:00332) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Yuan Heng Gas Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00332) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00475 HKSE:08270 HKSE:09689 HKSE:02728 HKSE:00852 HKSE:01621 HKSE:01142 HKSE:08007 HKSE:08631 HKSE:08347 NSE:RELIANCE MPC PSX VLO NSE:IOC TPE:6505 XKAZ:KMGZ BOM:500547 OHEL:NESTE TSE:5020
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
16 Harcourt Road, Room 4102, 41st Floor, Far East Finance Centre, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.yuanhenggas.com
Yuan Heng Gas Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. The company's operating segment includes production and sales of LNG, oil and gas transactions, and piped gas. The majority of the revenue is generated from oil and gas transactions. Its geographical segments include the People's Republic of China(PRC), Hong Kong, and Singapore, of which the majority of the revenue comes from PRC.
Executives
Champion Ever Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Xu 2202 Interest of your spouse
Wang Jianqing 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Central Huijin Investment Ltd. 2106 Person having a security interest in shares
China Construction Bank Corporation 2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Fundfleet Investment Limited Partnership 2101 Beneficial owner
Galaxy King Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

Yuan Heng Gas Holdings (HKSE:00332) Headlines

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