GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Regal Hotels International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00078) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Regal Hotels International Holdings (HKSE:00078) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1971. Start your Free Trial

What is Regal Hotels International Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regal Hotels International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Regal Hotels International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Regal Hotels International Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Regal Hotels International Holdings (HKSE:00078) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Regal Hotels International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00078) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01221 HKSE:01270 HKSE:00617 HKSE:00184 HKSE:00201 HKSE:00199 HKSE:00219 HKSE:00253 HKSE:01215 HKSE:01832 MAR HLT XNEP:SHL LSE:IHG H HTHT XPAR:AC BOM:500850 SAU:4250 LSE:WTB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
68 Yee Wo Street, 11th Floor, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.regal.com.hk
Regal Hotels International Holdings Ltd is a holding company. The firm through its subsidiaries is engaged in hotel operation and management businesses. The company has six reportable segments which are Hotel Operation and Management and Hotel Ownership segment; Asset Management; Property Development and Investment; Financial Assets Investments; Aircraft Ownership and Leasing; and Others segment mainly comprise travel agency services. The company has a presence in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and others. Geographically, it receives maximum revenue from Hong Kong.
Executives
H.p. Nominees Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

Regal Hotels International Holdings (HKSE:00078) Headlines

No Headlines