Highland Global Allocation Fund (Highland Global Allocation Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Highland Global Allocation Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Highland Global Allocation Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Highland Global Allocation Fund (Highland Global Allocation Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Highland Global Allocation Fund (NYSE:HGLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Crescent Court, Suite 700, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

http://www.highlandfunds.com

Highland Global Allocation Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The investment objective of the Fund is to seek long-term growth of capital and future income. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing in a portfolio of U.S. and foreign equity, debt, and money market securities. It may also invest in senior loans to domestic or foreign corporations, partnerships, and other entities that operate in a variety of industries and geographic regions.

Executives

Robert J Froehlich	director	405 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Dorri Mcwhorter	director	6431 OAKTON STREET, C/O LIFEWAY FOODS, INC., MORTON GROVE IL 60053
Pamela B Corrie	director	100 PIER 1 PLACE, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Stephanie Vitiello	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	NEXPOINT DIVERSIFIED REAL ESTATE TRUST, 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Brian Mitts	officer: PEO, PFO & Assistant Treasurer	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Dustin David Norris	director, officer: Secretary	2515 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75201
Bryan A Ward	director	3625 ROSEDALE, DALLAS TX 75205
Robert Jason Post	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	2515 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75201
Clifford Stoops	officer: Assistant Treasurer	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Frank George Waterhouse	officer: See Remarks	2515 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75201
Ethan Powell	director	2515 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75201
John Honis	director	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Timothy K Hui	director	48 WILLOW GREEN DRIVE, CHURCHVILLE PA 18966
Parker Lee Blackwell Iii	officer: Executive Vice President	300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201