Humanigen (Humanigen) Predictability Rank

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What is Humanigen Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Humanigen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Humanigen (Humanigen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Humanigen Inc (OTCPK:HGENQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

830 Morris Turnpike, 4th Floor, Short Hills, NJ, USA, 07078

Website

https://www.humanigen.com

Humanigen Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development of proprietary monoclonal antibodies for various oncology indications and to enhance T-cell therapies, making these treatments safer and cost-effective. It focuses on preventing the serious and potentially life-threatening side effects associated with chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy. Its pipeline includes programs such as Lenzilumab, Ifabotuzumab, and HGen005. It has one segment, which is related to the development of pharmaceutical products.

Executives

Dale Chappell	10 percent owner	C/O OPUS EQUUM INC., PO BOX 788, DOLORES CO 81323
Adrian Kilcoyne	officer: Chief Medical Officer	533 AIRPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Cameron Durrant	director	90, FAIRMOUNT ROAD WEST, CALIFON NJ 07830-3330
Edward P. Jordan	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
John Hohneker	director	C/O DIMENSION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Yili Kevin Xie	director	C/O VIEWRAY, INC., 2 THERMO FISHER WAY, OAKWOOD VILLAGE OH 44146
Black Horse Capital Lp	10 percent owner	C/O OPUS EQUUM INC., PO BOX 788, DOLORES CO 81323
Black Horse Capital Master Fund Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O OPUS EQUUM, INC., P.O. BOX 788, DOLORES CO 81323
Nomis Bay Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O EOM MANAGEMENT LTD., ANDREW'S PLACE, 51 CHURCH ST., 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM12
Cheryl Buxton	director	533 AIRPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Cheval Holdings, Ltd.	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 309G, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGETOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Black Horse Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	C/O OPUS EQUUM INC., PO BOX 788, DOLORES CO 81323
Robert G. Savage	director	C/O EPICEPT CORPORATION, 777 OLD SAW MILL ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Rainer J. Boehm	director	C/O HUMANIGEN, INC., 1000 MARINA BOULEVARD, SUITE 250, BRISBANE CA 94005-1878
J Gregory Jester	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INNOVIVE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 555 MADISON AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022