Global Water Resources (Global Water Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Water Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Water Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Global Water Resources (Global Water Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Global Water Resources Inc (NAS:GWRS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

21410 N. 19th Avenue, Suite 220, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027

Website

https://www.gwresources.com

Global Water Resources Inc operates as a water resource management company that owns, operates, and manages water, wastewater, and recycled water utilities in strategically located communities, principally in metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. It operate within the State of Arizona.

Executives

Andrew M. Cohn	director	C/O GARY GOTTO, KELLER ROHRBACK LLP, 3101 NORTH CENTRAL AVENUE, #1400, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Suzanne Michelle Kitts	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
William S Levine	director, 10 percent owner	GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVENUE #220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Jonathan L Levine	director	21410 N. 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Debra Coy	director	2401 EAST KATELLA AVENUE, SUITE 300, ANAHEIM CA 92806
Christopher D Krygier	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N. 19TH AVE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Brett Huckelbridge	director	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
John Carroll Lenderking	officer: VP, Water Resources	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Heather M Krupa	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC.,, 21410 N. 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Cindy M Bowers	director	21410 N 19TH AVENUE #220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
David Rousseau	director	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, 21410 N 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Jason Thuneman	officer: Vice President	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Trevor T Hill	director, 10 percent owner	21410 N 19TH AVENUE #220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Michael J Liebman	officer: See Remarks	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Jonathan C. Corwin	officer: Vice President	C/O GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC., 21410 N 19TH AVENUE, SUITE 220, PHOENIX AZ 85027