GrowGeneration (GrowGeneration) Predictability Rank

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What is GrowGeneration Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GrowGeneration Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GrowGeneration (GrowGeneration) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » GrowGeneration Corp (NAS:GRWG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GRWG:Mexico

Address

5619 DTC Parkway, Suite 900, Greenwood Village, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.growgeneration.com

GrowGeneration Corp owns and operates specialty retail hydroponic and organic gardening stores. The firm is a marketer and distributor of nutrients, growing media, advanced indoor and greenhouse lighting, ventilation systems and accessories for hydroponic gardening. The Company has three reportable segments, including retail operations, e-commerce, and distribution and other.

Executives

Michael Salaman	director, officer: President	C/O GROWGENERATION CORP., 1000 WEST MISSISSIPPI AVENUE, DENVER CO 80223
Darren Lampert	director, officer: CEO	C/O GROWGENERATION CORP., 1000 WEST MISSISSIPPI AVENUE, DENVER CO 80233
Gregory Kevin Sanders	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8770 ZIRCON WAY, ARVANDA CO 80007
Dennis Sheldon	officer: See Remarks	C/O GROWGENERATION CORP., 5619 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 900, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Stephen Kozey	officer: Secretary and VP of Legal	C/O GROWGENERATION CORP., 5619 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 900, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Eula L Adams	director	9194 E. VASSAR AVE., DENVER CO 80231
Paul Rutenis	officer: Chief Merchandise Officer	500 WESTRIDGE DRIVE, WATSONVILLE CA 95076
Stephen Aiello	director	112 OAK AVE, KENTFIELD CA 94904-1561
Sean Stiefel	director	28 REICHERT CIRCLE, WESTPORT CT 06880
Tony Sullivan	officer: COO	8353 ARAPAHOE PEAK STREET, LITTLETON CO 80125
Jeff Lasher	officer: CFO	500 WESTRIDGE DRIVE, WATSONVILLE CA 95076
Monty R Lamirato	officer: CFO
Merida Capital Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gotham Green Partners Llc	10 percent owner	1437 4TH STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Mitchell Baruchowitz	10 percent owner	C/O MERIDA MERGER CORP. I, 641 LEXINGTON AVE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022