Gossamer Bio (Gossamer Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Gossamer Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gossamer Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gossamer Bio (Gossamer Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Gossamer Bio Inc (NAS:GOSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4GB:Germany

Address

3013 Science Park Road, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.gossamerbio.com

Gossamer Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It focuses on discovering, acquiring, developing, and commercializing therapeutics in the disease areas of immunology, inflammation, and oncology. The company pipeline products include Seralutinib, which address the cellular overgrowth, fibrosis, and vascular remodeling which underlie PAH (pulmonary arterial hypertension); GB004, for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, including ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease; GB1275, for the treatment of oncology indications; and GB001, for the treatment of moderate-to-severe eosinophilic asthma.

Executives

Sandra Milligan	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Bryan Giraudo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7707 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 140, NEWARK CA 94560
Richard Aranda	officer: Chief Medical Officer	3013 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Faheem Hasnain	director, officer: Executive Chairman	14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Waage Christian	officer: EVP & General Counsel	RECEPTOS, INC., 10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 205, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Caryn Peterson	officer: EVP, Regulatory Affairs	3013 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Laura Carter	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	3013 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Luisa Salter-cid	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O GOSSAMER BIO, INC., 3013 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jakob Dupont	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ONCOMED PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 800 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Sheila Gujrathi	director, officer: President & CEO	10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 205, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Omega Fund V Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Omega Fund V Gp Manager, Ltd.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Omega Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Otello Stampacchia	director, 10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Russell J. Cox	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS, PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2