Gold Resource (Gold Resource) Predictability Rank

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What is Gold Resource Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gold Resource Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gold Resource (Gold Resource) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Gold Resource Corp (AMEX:GORO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GIH:Germany

Address

7900 East Union Avenue, Suite 320, Denver, CO, USA, 80237

Website

https://www.goldresourcecorp.com

Gold Resource Corp is a gold and silver producer, developer, and explorer with operations in Oaxaca, Mexico, and Nevada, USA. It targets low capital expenditure projects with the potential for generating high returns on capital. The company's two pipeline projects are; Don David Gold at Oaxaca, Mexico, and Back Forty at Michigan, United States of America.

Executives

Chet Holyoak	officer: Interim CFO	7900 E UNION AVENUE, SUITE 320, DENVER CO 80237
Allen J Palmiere	director, officer: CEO, President	2000 S. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 10200, DENVER CO 80222
Joseph Martin Driscoll	director	2000 S. COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 10200, DENVER CO 80222
Kimberly C Perry	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2886 CARRIAGE MANOR POINT, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Alberto Reyes	officer: Chief Operating Officer	53 RIVER VALLEY DRIVE, KITCHENER A6 N2C 2V5
Lila A Murphy	director	2000 S. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 10200, DENVER CO 80222
Ronald Little	director	2234 OLD LILAC LANE, OTTAWA A6 K1H 6H7
Richard M Irvine	director	LAS ROSAS #339, COLONIA REFORMA, OAXACA O5 68050
Alex G Morrison	director	1658 COLE BLVD., BLDG. 6, SUITE 210, LAKEWOOD CO 80401
Elizabeth Ann Wilkinson	officer: See Remarks	45 GLENADEN AVENUE E, TORONTO A6 M8Y 2L4
Bill M Conrad	director	2886 CARRIAGE MANOR POINT, COLO SPGS CO 80906
Gregory A Patterson	officer: VP Corporate Development	2886 CARRIAGE MANOR POINT, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Barry D Devlin	officer: VP Exploration	7338 YELLOW FIN COURT, BLAINE WA 98230
John A Labate	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Jessica M Browne	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	2886 CARRIAGE MANOR POINT, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906