Genprex (Genprex) Predictability Rank

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What is Genprex Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genprex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Genprex (Genprex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Genprex Inc (NAS:GNPX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2DE:Germany

Address

3300 Bee Cave Road, Suite 650-227, Austin, TX, USA, 78746

Website

https://www.genprex.com

Genprex Inc is a clinical-stage gene therapy company. It is a clinical stage gene therapy company pioneering the development of gene-based therapies for large patient populations with unmet medical needs.

Executives

Catherine M Vaczy	officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer	C/O PHASE III MEDICAL, INC., 330 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 120, MELVILLE NY 11747
John Rodney Varner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	P.O. BOX 162341, AUSTIN TX 78716
Hermant Kumar	officer: Chief Mfgr & Tech Officer	3300 BEE CAVE ROAD, #650-227, AUSTIN TX 78746
Mark Stanley Berger	officer: Chief Medical Officer	140 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, APT. 9K, NEW YORK NY 10024
Brent M Longnecker	director	C/O RESOURCES CONNECTION, 695 TOWN CENTER DR, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Moreno Toscano Jose Antonio	director	1501 UNIVERSITY CLUB DRIVE, AUSTIN TX 78732
Wilson William R Jr.	director	1407 ETHRIDGE AVE, AUSTIN TX 78703
Michael Thomas Redman	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	16402 EMILIA COURT, SPRING TX 77379
John N Bonfiglio	director	C/O MICROLIN BIO, INC., NEW YORK NY 10022
Genprex, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1601 TRINITY STREET, BLDG. B, SUITE 3.322, AUSTIN TX 78712
Julien L Pham	officer: Chief Operating Officer	944 DORCHESTER AVE #56, BOSTON MA 02125
Jack A Roth	10 percent owner	6516 BROMPTON ROAD, HOUSTON TX 770055
Christy M. Nance	10 percent owner	8305 SCENIC RIDGE COVE, AUSTIN TX 78735
Ryan M. Confer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1000 SAN MARCOS ST. #460, AUSTIN TX 78702
Robert W. Pearson	director	3001 MEANDERING RIVER COURT, AUSTIN TX 78746