What is Guardion Health Sciences Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Guardion Health Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Guardion Health Sciences (Guardion Health Sciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2925 Richmond Avenue, Suite 1200, Houston, TX, USA, 77098
Guardion Health Sciences Inc is a specialty health sciences company formed to develop, formulate and distribute condition-specific medical foods with an initial medical food product. The company's Medical Foods include Lumega-Z and GlaucoCetin; Medical Devices include Mapcat SF, VectorVision, CSV-1000 and CSV-2000; Nutraceuticals include ImmuneSF.
Executives
| Katharine Joan Cox |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
2925 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Janet Hall |
officer: CEO & President |
2925 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Bradley Louis Radoff |
10 percent owner |
2727 KIRBY DRIVE, UNIT 29L, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Family Foundation Radoff |
other: See Footnote 1 |
2727 KIRBY DRIVE, UNIT 29L, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Michaela Griggs |
director |
2925 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Bret Scholtes |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2105 CITY WEST BLVD., SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Donald A Gagliano |
director |
131 CARDINAL AVE, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209 |
| Jeffrey S Benjamin |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
3885 CRESTWOOD PARKWAY, SUITE 550, DULUTH GA 30096 |
| Craig Sheehan |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
15150 AVENUE OF SCIENCE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92128 |
| Andrew C Schmidt |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1700 CARNEGIE AVE, SUITE 100, SANTA ANA CA 92705 |
| Kelly Anderson |
director |
C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 9454 WILSHIRE BLVD., R-1, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212 |
| David W Evans |
director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
4141 JUTLAND DRIVE, SUITE 215, SAN DIEGO CA 92117 |
| Tamara A Evans |
10 percent owner |
4141 JUTLAND DRIVE, SUITE 215, SAN DIEGO CA 92117 |
| Vincent J Roth |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
15150 AVENUE OF SCIENCE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92128 |
| Robert N Weingarten |
director |
5439 LOCKHURST DRIVE, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367 |
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