GlucoTrack (GlucoTrack) Predictability Rank

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What is GlucoTrack Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GlucoTrack Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GlucoTrack (GlucoTrack) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » GlucoTrack Inc (NAS:GCTK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 Route 17 North, Suite 800, Rutherford, New Jersey, NJ, USA, 07070

Website

https://www.glucotrack.com

GlucoTrack Inc is a medical device company. It focuses on the design, development, and commercialization of non-invasive glucose monitoring devices for use by people with diabetes and pre-diabetics. The company has developed a non-invasive glucose monitor, the GlucoTrack model DF-F glucose monitoring device, which is designed to help people with diabetes and pre-diabetics obtain glucose level readings without the pain, inconvenience, and difficulty of conventional spot finger stick devices. It also focuses on developing a wireless module for transmission of measurement data captured by the GlucoTrack model DF-F to a cloud-based server.

Executives

James S Cardwell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	CLINTON SQUARE, 75 S. CLINTON AVE., SUITE 510, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Erin Catherine Carter	director	301 RTE 17 NORTH, STE. 800, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Allen Danzig	director	301 RT 17 NORTH, SUITE 800, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Shimon D Rapps	director	C/O ANDREW GARRETT, INC., 52 VANDERBILT AVENUE SUITE 510, NEW YORK NY 10017
Drew Sycoff	director	C/O ANDREW GARRETT INC, 52 VANDERBILT AVENUE - 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
David Podwalski	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	19 HA'YAHALOMIM ST., P.O. BOX 12163, ASHDOD L3 7760049
Michael Hauck	director	19 HA'YAHALOMIM ST., P.O. BOX 12163, C/O INTEGRITY APPLICATIONS, INC., ASHDOD L3 7760049
John A Graham	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	19 HA'YAHALOMIM STREET, P.O. BOX 12163, ASHDOD L3 7760049
Sami Sassoun	officer: Chief Financial Officer	39-06 ACKERMAN DRIVE, FAIR LAWN L3 7760049
Philip Darivoff	director	1 FARMSTEAD ROAD, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Revan Schwartz	director	19 HA'YAHALOMIM ST., P.O. BOX 12163, C/O INTEGRITY APPLICATIONS, INC., ASHDOD L3 7760049
Angela Strand Boydston	director	C/O AEROGEN, INC., 2071 STIERLIN COURT, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Leslie Seff	director	PO BOX 59, 40 HELLBROOK LANE, ULSTER PARK NY 12487
Eran Hertz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INTEGRITY APPLICATIONS, INC., 102 HA'AVODA STREET, P.O. BOX 432, ASHKELON L3 L3 78100
Israel B. Ehrlich	director	C/O INTEGRITY APPLICATIONS, INC., 102 HA'AVODA STREET, P.O. BOX 432, ASHKELON L3 L378100