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New Concept Energy (New Concept Energy) Predictability Rank


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What is New Concept Energy Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Concept Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

New Concept Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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New Concept Energy (New Concept Energy) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » New Concept Energy Inc (AMEX:GBR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
WEWKQ OWVI DUO LEJUY ZDPY FLJ ALBT MHPC ACAN UK CSGP CBRE XMAD:CLNX XTER:VNA BEKE TSE:8830 ADX:QHOLDING OSTO:AKEL D HKSE:01972 MIL:INW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1603 Lyndon B Johnson Freeway, Suite 800, Dallas, TX, USA, 75234
Website
https://www.newconceptenergy.com
New Concept Energy Inc is a United States-based company engaged in Real Estate Operations. The company owns approximately 190 acres of land located in Parkersburg, West Virginia. It operates in one segment, which is real estate rental.
Executives
Realty Advisors Inc 10 percent owner 1603 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
Mintbroker International, Ltd. 10 percent owner ELIZABETH AVE. & BAY STREET, NASSAU C5 N-8340
International Health Products, Inc. 10 percent owner 2010 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 250, DALLAS TX 75234
Gene S Bertcher director, officer: President and CEO 1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
Syntek West Inc 10 percent owner 1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE SUITE 100, DALLAS TX 75234
Syntek Acquisition Corp. 10 percent owner 1755 WITTINGTON, DALLAS TX 75234
Smith Oscar Wilbur Jr officer: Vice President & Secretary 16302 ARBOR DOWNS DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75248
Victor Lund director, 10 percent owner 818 NE 87TH AVE, VANCOUVER WA 98664
Hks Investment Corp 10 percent owner 26632 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE #220, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Ron Finley director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1755 WITTINGTON PLACE, SUITE 340, DALLAS TX 75234
Warrick Summit Square Inc 10 percent owner BOX 1398, ADDISON TX 75001
James E Huffstickler director
Beadle Roz Campisi director 14185 DALLAS PARKWAY SUITE 650, DALLAS TX 75254