F-star Therapeutics (F-star Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is F-star Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

F-star Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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F-star Therapeutics (F-star Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » F-star Therapeutics Inc (NAS:FSTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Babraham Research Campus, Eddeva B920, Cambridge, GBR, CB22 3AT

Website

https://www.f-star.com

F-star Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing tetravalent bispecific antibodies for a paradigm-shift in cancer therapy. By developing medicines that seek to block tumor immune evasion, the company's goal is to offer patients greater and more durable benefits than immuno-oncology treatments.

Executives

Geoffrey Race	director	C/O EDDEVA B920, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Edward Jr Benz	director	C/O EDDEVA B920, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Darlene M Deptula-hicks	officer: See Remarks	C/O ICAD, INC., 98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Eliot Forster	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	C/O EDDEVA B920, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Nessan Bermingham	director	890 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Louis Kayitalire	officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	C/O EDDEVA B920, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Neil Brewis	officer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER	C/O EDDEVA B920, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Pamela M. Klein	director	35 PARKWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 210, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Krol Patrick Johan Hendrik	director	GUSTAV MAHLERPLEIN 3, AMSTERDAM P7 1082 MS
Garrett Winslow	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	35 PARKWOOD DRIVE, C/O SPRING BANK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Lori Firmani	officer: VP of Finance and Treasurer	35 PARKWOOD DRIVE, C/O SPRING BANK PHARMACEUTCALS, INC., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Scott Andrew Smith	director	C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Timothy P Clackson	director	C/O ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Christiana Bardon	director, 10 percent owner	86 SOUTH STREET, C/O SPRING BANK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Mpm Oncology Impact Management Lp	10 percent owner	399 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02116