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Fisker (Fisker) Predictability Rank


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What is Fisker Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fisker Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fisker Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fisker (Fisker) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Fisker Inc (OTCPK:FSRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
LVWR GGR BLBD CJET NWTN GOEV NIU WKHS MULN EGOX TSLA TSE:7203 SZSE:002594 XTER:MBG XTER:BMW STLA XTER:VOW3 MIL:RACE TSE:7267 F
Traded in Other Exchanges
FIS:Germany FIS:Germany
Address
1888 Rosecrans Avenue, Manhattan Beach, CA, USA, 90266
Website
https://www.fiskerinc.com
Fisker Inc is revolutionizing the automotive industry by developing emotionally desirable and eco-friendly electric vehicles on Earth. The company is an e-mobility service provider with sustainable vehicles.
Executives
Florus Beuting officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O PLBY GROUP, INC., 10960 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 2200, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Burkhard J. Huhnke officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Fifthdelta Ltd 10 percent owner 15 SACKVILLE STREET, 1ST FLOOR, LONDON X0 W1S 3DJ
Finnucan John C Iv officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Henrik Fisker director, officer: President & CEO C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Wendy J. Greuel director C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Mitchell Zuklie director C/O FISKER INC., 1888 ROSECRANS AVENUE, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Mark E Hickson director 700 UNIVERSE BLVD, JUNO BEACH FL 33408
William R Mcdermott director 2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Geeta Gupta director, officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Spartan Energy Acquisition Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Roderick K. Randall director C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Nadine I Watt director C/O FISKER INC., 1580 FRANCISCO STREET, SUITE B, TORRANCE CA 90501
Glazer Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019