Fresh Tracks Therapeutics (Fresh Tracks Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is Fresh Tracks Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fresh Tracks Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Fresh Tracks Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fresh Tracks Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Fresh Tracks Therapeutics (Fresh Tracks Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Fresh Tracks Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:FRTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5777 Central Avenue, Suite 102, Boulder, CO, USA, 80301

Website

https://www.frtx.com

Fresh Tracks Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company striving to transform patient lives through the development of innovative and differentiated prescription therapeutics.

Executives

Monica E. Luchi	officer: Chief Medical Officer	430 EAST 29TH STREET, SUITE 940, NEW YORK NY 10016
Reginald L Hardy	director, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD
David R. Mcavoy	officer: General Counsel and CCO	C/O ENDOCYTE, INC., 3000 KENT AVENUE, SUITE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906
Deepak Chadha	officer: Chief Research & Dev. Officer	5777 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 102, BOULDER CO 80301
Vijay B Samant	director	10390 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jose Breton	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5777 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 102, BOULDER CO 80301
Robert Busard Brown	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5777 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 102, BOULDER CO 80301
Andrew D Sklawer	officer: COO and Secretary	5777 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 102, BOULDER CO 80301
Dennison T Veru	director	C/O PALIDADE CAPITAL, ONE BRIDGE PLAZA NORTH #695, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Marchio Albert N Ii	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Gary A Lyons	director	12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Sanjeev Ahuja	officer: Chief Medical Officer	121 3RD STREET NW, CARMEL IN 46032
Adam Scott Levy	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O MIRAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6200 LOOKOUT ROAD, #100, BOULDER CO 80301
William Ju	director	5777 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 102, BOULDER CO 80301
R Michael Carruthers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3122 STERLING CIRCLE, SUITE 200, BOULDER CO 80301