Forge Global Holdings (Forge Global Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Forge Global Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Forge Global Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Forge Global Holdings (Forge Global Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Forge Global Holdings Inc (NYSE:FRGE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

415 Mission Street, Suite 5510, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.forgeglobal.com

Forge Global Holdings Inc is a financial service platform created to serve the unique needs of the private market. It provides marketplace infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions for private market participants. The Company offers a trusted trading platform, proprietary data and insights to inform investment strategies, along with custody services to help companies, shareholders, institutions and accredited investors confidently navigate and transact in the private market.

Executives

Kelly Rodriques	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	415 MISSION ST, SUITE 5510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Kimberley H Vogel	director	63 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, CHICO CA 95973
Christoph Hansmeyer	director	415 MISSION ST, SUITE 5510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Johnathan H Short	officer: Chief Legal Officer	2100 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30308
Asiff S Hirji	director	250 FAIR OAKS STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110
Herbert James H. Ii	director	1230 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Ashwin Kumar	director	415 MISSION ST, SUITE 5510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Stephen J. George	director	415 MISSION ST, SUITE 5510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jose Cobos	officer: Chief Operating Officer	415 MISSION ST, SUITE 5510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Borse Ag Deutsche	10 percent owner
Mark P Lee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	415 MISSION ST, SUITE 5510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Steven J. Mclaughlin	director	277 PARK AVENUE 29TH FLOOR, SUITE B, NEW YORK NY 10172
Kristy Trieste	director, officer: CFO and Director	C/O MOTIVE CAPITAL, 250 GREENWICH STREET, FLOOR 47, NEW YORK NY 10007
Motive Capital Funds Sponsor, Llc	10 percent owner	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, FLOOR 47, NEW YORK NY 10007
Stephen C. Daffron	director	C/O THE DUN & BRADSTREET CORPORATION, 103 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078-2708