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First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey (First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey) Predictability Rank


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What is First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey Predictability Rank Related Terms

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First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey (First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey Inc (OTCPK:FREVS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BHM CLPR BRT AVB EQR INVH ESS MAA SUI AMH UDR ELS CPT AIRC TSX:CAR.UN IRT TSE:3269 TSX:BEI.UN XPAR:ALTA TSX:CSH.UN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
505 Main Street, Suite 400, Hackensack, NJ, USA, 07601
Website
https://www.freitnj.com
First Real Estate Investment Trust of New Jersey Inc operates in the real estate sector of the United States. It implies the investment in real estate properties and passing on a regular income and benefit of capital appreciation to its shareholders. The company operates in two reportable segments; commercial properties and residential properties. Its revenues consist of fixed rental income from its residential and commercial properties and additional rent in the form of expense reimbursements acquired from its income-producing commercial properties. The majority of revenue is derived from the Residential properties segment.
Executives
Richard Aslanian director 4 WEST RED OAK LANE, SUITE 303, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Justin Meng director 10 ROCK HILL LANE, SCARSDALE NY 10583
Ronald J Artinian other: Trustee FIVE BRISTOL DRIVE, MANHASSET NY 10030
Allan Tubin officer: CFO and Treasurer 505 MAIN STREET, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
David Hekemian other: Trustee 505 MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Donald W Barney officer: Trustee & President
Herbert C Klein other: Trustee 155 POLIFLY RD, HACKENSCK NJ 07601
John A Aiello officer: Trustee & Executive Secretary GIORDANO HALLERAN & CLESIA, PC 125 HALF MILE RD PO BOX 190, MIDDLETOWN NJ 07748
David F Mcbride director C/O KEYSTONE PROPERTY TRUST, 200 FOUR FALLS CORPORATE CENTER, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Hekemian Robert S Jr director 370 PASCACK ROAD, TOWNSHIP OF WASHINGTON NJ 07676
Alan L Aufzien other: Trustee
Robert S Hekemian officer: CEO 505 MAIN ST, SUITE 400, HACKENSACK NJ 07601