Forian (Forian) Predictability Rank

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What is Forian Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Forian Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Forian (Forian) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Forian Inc (NAS:FORA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

41 University Drive, Suite 400, Newtown, PA, USA, 18940

Website

https://www.forian.com

Forian Inc provides a suite of SaaS solutions, data management capabilities, and proprietary data and analytics to optimize and measure operational, clinical, and financial performance for customers within the traditional and emerging life sciences, healthcare payer and provider segments, as well as cannabis dispensaries, manufacturers, cultivators, and regulators.

Executives

Martin J Wygod	director	P.O. BOX 676306, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Trotman Stanley S Jr	director
Max C Wygod	director, officer: Executive Chairman	41 UNIVERSITY PLACE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Max Wygod Family Dynasty Trust	10 percent owner	41 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Michael Vesey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4041-T HADLEY ROAD, S. PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Jennifer Hajj	director	41 UNIVERSITY PLACE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Kristiina Md Vuori	director	C/O WEBMD HEALTH CORP., 111 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Scott Matthew Ogur	director	C/O HELIX TCS, INC., 10200 E. GIRARD AVENUE, SUITE B420, DENVER CO 80231
Farren Clifford A Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SYNAVANT INC, 3445 PEACHTREE ROAD NE SUITE 1400, ATLANTA GA 30326
Adler Mark J Md	director
Ian Banwell	director	P.O. BOX 34004, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Shahir Kassam-adams	director	41 UNIVERSITY PLACE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Adam H Dublin	director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer	41 UNIVERSITY PLACE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Daniel J Barton	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	41 UNIVERSITY PLACE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Alyssa F Varadhan	director	41 UNIVERSITY PLACE, SUITE 400, NEWTOWN PA 18940