Finch Therapeutics Group (Finch Therapeutics Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Finch Therapeutics Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Finch Therapeutics Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Finch Therapeutics Group (Finch Therapeutics Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Finch Therapeutics Group Inc (NAS:FNCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 Inner Belt Road, Suite 400, Somerville, MA, USA, 02143

Website

https://www.finchtherapeutics.com

Finch Therapeutics Group Inc is a clinical-stage microbiome therapeutics company. It is leveraging Human-First Discovery platform to develop a novel class of orally administered biological drugs. It is developing novel therapeutics to deliver missing microbes and their clinically relevant biochemical functions to correct dysbiosis and the diseases that emerge from it. The lead product candidate is CP101 which delivers a complete microbiome and is being developed initially for the treatment of patients with recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection.

Executives

Jeffery A Smisek	director	1600 SMITH STREET, HQSEO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Susan E Graf	director	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Lance E Thibault	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Matthew P. Blischak	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FINCH THERAPEUTICS GROUP, INC., 200 INNER BELT ROAD, SOMERVILLE MA 02143
Joseph Vittiglio	officer: Chief Business & Legal Officer	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 455 GRAND UNION BLVD, SOMERVILLE MA 02145
Marc Blaustein	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O FINCH THERAPEUTICS GROUP, INC., 200 INNER BELT ROAD, SUITE 400, SOMERVILLE MA 02143
Domenic J Ferrante	director	BROOKSIDE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Samuel A Hamood	director	C/O TRANSUNION, 555 WEST ADAMS STREET, CHICAGO IL 60661
Joanne L. Viney	director	C/O HARPOON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 131 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Nicholas Haft	director	C/O FINCH THERAPEUTICS GROUP, INC., 200 INNER BELT ROAD, SUITE 400, SOMERVILLE MA 02143
Christian H. Lange	director	28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Crestovo Investor Llc	director, 10 percent owner	28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gregory D Perry	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER ST., WALTHAM MA 02451
Chris Shumway	director, 10 percent owner	28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Zain Kassam	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O FINCH THERAPEUTICS GROUP, INC., 200 INNER BELT ROAD, SUITE 400, SOMERVILLE MA 02143