Flux Power Holdings (Flux Power Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Flux Power Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flux Power Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flux Power Holdings (Flux Power Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Flux Power Holdings Inc (NAS:FLUX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2685 S. Melrose Drive, Vista, CA, USA, 92081

Website

https://www.fluxpower.com

Flux Power Holdings Inc design, develop, manufacture, and sell a portfolio of lithium-ion energy storage solutions for electrification of a range of industrial commercial sectors which include material handling, airport ground support equipment (GSE), and other commercial and industrial applications It offers a high-power battery cell management system(BMS). The company's BMS provides three functions to its battery systems which include Cell Balancing, Monitoring, and Error Reporting.

Executives

Jeffrey Curtis Mason	officer: Vice President of Operations	2685 S MELROSE DR, VISTA CA 92081
Charles Scheiwe	officer: CFO & Secretary	1135 BAJA WAY, SAN MARCOS CA 92078
Ronald F Dutt	officer: CFO	C/O SOLA INTERNATIONAL INC, 10590 W. OCEAN AIR DR. #300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Michael Johnson	10 percent owner	2240 AUTO PARK WAY, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Esenjay Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	500 NORTH WATER ST., STE 1100 SOUTH, CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78401
Lisa Walters-hoffert	director	C/O DARE BIOSCIENCE, INC., 10210 CAMPUS POINT DRIVE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cheemin Bo-linn	director	4555 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Jonathan Andrew Berry	officer: COO	985 POINSETTIA AVE STE A, VISTA CA 92081
Cosentino John A Jr	director	C/O STURM RUGER & COMPANY INC, ONE LACEY PLACE, SOUTHPORT CT 06890
Dale Thomas Robinette	director	15774 SUNSET DRIVE, POWAY CA 92064
Cleveland Capital Management, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1250 LINDA ST., SUITE 304, ROCKY RIVER OH 44116
Wade Massad	10 percent owner	1414 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Timothy Collins	director	100 PINE STREET, SUITE 605, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
James Gevarges	10 percent owner	2240 AUTO PARK WAY, ESCONDIDO CA 92029
Christopher Lee Anthony	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO, President	2240 AUTO PARK WAY, ESCONDIDO CA 92029