Ferrellgas Partners LP (Ferrellgas Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Ferrellgas Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ferrellgas Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ferrellgas Partners LP (Ferrellgas Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Ferrellgas Partners LP (OTCPK:FGPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FGPRB:USA

Address

One Liberty Plaza, Liberty, MO, USA, 64068

Website

https://www.ferrellgas.com

Ferrellgas Partners LP operates as a propane distributor. Its operations primarily include the distribution and sale of propane and related equipment and supplies within the Midwest, Southeast, Southwest, and Northwest regions of the United States. The firm caters to residential, industrial, commercial, portable tank exchange, agricultural, wholesale and other, customers. Ferrellgas earns revenue primarily through the distribution of propane, as well as through the sale of propane related equipment and supplies.

Executives

Allen G Jones	officer: VP Legal & General Counsel	C/O FERRELLGAS, INC., ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, LIBERTY MO 64068
Joe Eby	director	13795 S. MUR-LEN RD, STE. 301, OLATHE MO 66062
Michael E Cole	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FERRELLGAS, INC., ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, LIBERTY MO 64068
Dhiraj Cherian	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FERRELLGAS, INC., ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, LIBERTY MO 64068
Edward Newberry	director	C/O FERRELLGAS, INC., ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, LIBERTY MO 64068
Ares Management Holdings L.p.	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Craig Snyder	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ares Management Corp	director	2000 AVE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Carney Hawks	director	C/O EXTRACTION OIL & GAS, 370 17TH STREET, SUITE 5300, DENVER CO 80202
Ares Management Llc	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ares Voting Llc	director	C/O ARES MGMT, 2000 AVE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ares Holdco Llc	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ares Management Gp Llc	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ares Partners Holdco Llc	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Brian Herrmann	officer: Interim CFO	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, LIBERTY MO 64068