F&G Annuities & Life (F&G Annuities & Life) Predictability Rank

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What is F&G Annuities & Life Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

F&G Annuities & Life Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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F&G Annuities & Life (F&G Annuities & Life) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » F&G Annuities & Life Inc (NYSE:FG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

801 Grand Avenue, Suite 2600, Des Moines, IA, USA, 50309

Website

https://www.fglife.com

F&G Annuities & Life Inc is a provider of insurance solutions serving retail annuity and life customers as well as institutional clients. Through its insurance subsidiaries, including FGL Insurance and Fidelity & Guaranty Life Insurance Company of New York it markets a broad portfolio of deferred annuities (fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) and multi-year guarantee annuities (MYGAs) or other fixed rate annuities), immediate annuities, indexed universal life (IUL) insurance, funding agreements (through funding agreement-backed notes (FABN) issuances and the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta (FHLB)) and pension risk transfer (PRT) solutions.

Executives

Christopher O Blunt	officer: President & CEO	801 GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 2600, DES MOINES IA 50309
Doka Celina J. Wang	director	801 GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 2600, DES MOINES IA 50309
Douglas K Ammerman	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Douglas Martinez	director	801 GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 2600, DES MOINES IA 50309
Currier John David Jr.	officer: President, Retail Markets	601 LOCUST STREET, 14TH FLOOR, DES MOINES IA 50309
Scott D. Cochran	officer: President, Inst. & New Markets	1370 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017
Young Wendy J.b.	officer: CFO	TWO RUAN CENTER, 601 LOCUST STREET, 14TH FLOOR, DES MOINES IA 50309
Leena Punjabi	officer: Chief Investment Officer	1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 18934
David Edward Martin	officer: CRO	1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 18934
Foley William P Ii	director, officer: Exec Chairman of the Board	FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.	10 percent owner	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
John D Rood	director	3020 HARTLEY ROAD SUITE 300, JACKSONVILLE FL 32257
Raymond R Quirk	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Michael Joseph Nolan	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204