5E Advanced Materials (5E Advanced Materials) Predictability Rank

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What is 5E Advanced Materials Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

5E Advanced Materials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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5E Advanced Materials (5E Advanced Materials) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » 5E Advanced Materials Inc (NAS:FEAM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

J9I0:Germany 5EA:Australia

Address

9329 Mariposa Road, Suite 210, Hesperia, CA, USA, 92344

Website

https://www.5eadvancedmaterials.com

5E Advanced Materials Inc is engaged boron specialty advanced materials and lithium with a focus on enabling decarbonization, including electric transportation, clean energy, and food security.

Executives

David J Salisbury	director	59 NORTH 100 EAST, PO BOX 228, NEWTON UT 84327
Hoff Graham Vant	director	C/O BLUESCAPE ENERGY PARTNERS, LLC, 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1900, DALLAS TX 75201
Brennan Susan Seilheimer	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O WINSTON & STRAWN LLP, 800 CAPITOL ST., SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
George Fairchild	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O WINSTON & STRAWN LLP, 800 CAPITOL ST., SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Anthony David Hall	officer: Principal Executive Officer	C/O WINSTON & STRAWN LLP, 800 CAPITOL ST., SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Patricia Mishic O'brien	director	C/O WINSTON & STRAWN LLP, 800 CAPITOL ST, SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
H. Keith Jennings	director	2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Sen Ming Lim	director	FLAT 12D, GREENVIEW GARDENS, 125 ROBINSON ROAD, MID-LEVELS WEST, HONG KONG K3 00000
Weibel Paul Wesley Iii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8956 HILLSIDE ROAD, ALTA LOMA CA 91737
Chantel Renee Jordan	officer: General Counsel	3739 DRAKE ST., HOUSTON TX 77005
Stephen Brian Hunt	director	21 ALLEN GROVE, UNLEY C3 SA 5061
Atlas Precious Metals Inc.	10 percent owner	10750 E. PRINCE RD, TUCSON AZ 85749
Henri Tausch	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	22 MOHAWK PATH PL, THE WOODLANDS TX 77389
Tyson Joseph Hall	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1508 BUCKEYE ST., FORT COLLINS CO 80524
Chanson Joseph Pipitone	officer: Head of Corporate Development	621 ROY STREET, HOUSTON TX 77007