Fortress Biotech (Fortress Biotech) Predictability Rank

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What is Fortress Biotech Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fortress Biotech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fortress Biotech (Fortress Biotech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Fortress Biotech Inc (NAS:FBIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FBIOP.PFD:USA CNB0.PFD:Germany

Address

1111 Kane Concourse, Suite 301, Bay Harbor Island, FL, USA, 33154

Website

https://www.fortressbiotech.com

Fortress Biotech Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The firm is involved in the business of acquiring, developing, and commercializing pharmaceutical and biotechnology products. Its product portfolio encompasses Qbrexza, Accutane, Amzeeq, Zilxi, Targadox, Ximino, and Exelderm. The business activities of the group are functioned through Dermatology Product Sales, and Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Product Development. It derives the majority of its revenues from Dermatology segment. Its subsidiaries also operate in biotechnology, pharmaceutical, oncology, therapeutics sectors.

Executives

Rosenwald Lindsay A Md	director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT, CEO & CHAIRMAN	375 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Lucy Lu	director	THE FEMALE HEALTH COMPANY, 4400 BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 888, MIAMI FL 33137
David Jin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AVENUE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FLOOR 9, NEW YORK NY 10036
Dov Klein	director	C/O FORTRESS BIOTECH, INC., 3 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robyn Hunter	officer: Chief Financial Officer	95 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 110, WALTHAM MA 02453
Eric K Rowinsky	director	IMCLONE SYSTEMS INCORPORATED, 180 VARICK STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Malcolm Hoenlein	director	750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael S Weiss	director, 10 percent owner, officer: EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN	750 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
J Jay Lobell	director	365 W END AVE, APARTMENT 10A, NEW YORK NY 10024
Jimmie Harvey	director	3741 EAST FAIRWAY DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35213
Kevin Lorenz	director	C/O NUVEEN, 333 W. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
George Avgerinos	officer: SVP, Biologics Operations	C/O CORONADO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 24 NEW ENGLAND EXECUTIVE PARK, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Kevin Horgan	other: Former Chief Medical Officer	C/O SOLIGENIX, INC., 29 EMMONS DRIVE, STE. C-10, PRINCETON NJ 08540
David Jonathan Barrett	director	ONE PENN PLAZA, SUITE 2514, NEW YORK NY 10119
Harlan F Weisman	director	C/O CORONADO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 15 NEW ENGLAND EXECUTIVE PARK, BURLINGTON MA 01803