Extreme Networks (Extreme Networks) Predictability Rank

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What is Extreme Networks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Extreme Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Extreme Networks (Extreme Networks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Extreme Networks Inc (NAS:EXTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EXM:Germany EXM:Germany

Address

2121 RDU Center Drive, Suite 300, Morrisville, NC, USA, 27560

Website

https://www.extremenetworks.com

Extreme Networks Inc provides software-driven networking services for enterprise customers. Its products include wired and wireless network infrastructure equipment and software for network management, policy, analytics, and access controls. It offers high-density Wi-Fi, centralized management, cloud-based network management, and application analytics capabilities. The company operates in a single segment which develops and markets network infrastructure equipment. Roughly half of the firm's revenue is generated in the Americas, with the rest coming from Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

Executives

Edward Meyercord	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TALK AMERICA HOLDINGS INC, 12020 SUNRISE VALLEY DR, STE. 1500, RESTON VA 20191
Joseph A Vitalone	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	CO SHORETEL INC, 960 STEWART DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Raj Khanna	director	145 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 94134
Kevin R Rhodes	officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer	20 HARVARD MILLS SQUARE, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Edward H Kennedy	director	C/O TELLABS OPERATIONS INC, 1415 W DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Cristina Camahort Tate	officer: Interim CFO	C/O EXTREME NETWORKS, INC., 2121 RDU CENTER DRIVE SUITE 300, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Remi Thomas	officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer	6480 VIA DEL ORO, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Ingrid Burton	director	1011 MCCARTHY BOULEVARD --, MILPITAS CA 95035
Kathleen M Holmgren	director	C/O EXTREME NETWORKS, INC, 145 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Charles Carinalli	director
John C Shoemaker	director	1143 BORREGAS AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Robert J Gault	officer: EVP Global Sales, Channel, Svc	C/O EXTREME NETWORKS, INC, 145 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Matthew Howard Cleaver	officer: Interim CFO	6480 VIA DEL ORO, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Maryam Alexandrian-adams	director	516 WELLS COURT, SAN RAMON CA 94582
John H Kispert	director