Edgewise Therapeutics (Edgewise Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Edgewise Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Edgewise Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Edgewise Therapeutics (Edgewise Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Edgewise Therapeutics Inc (NAS:EWTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3415 Colorado Avenue, Boulder, CO, USA, 80303

Website

https://www.edgewisetx.com

Edgewise Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of innovative treatments for severe, rare muscle disorders. It is developing orally bioavailable, small molecule therapies for musculoskeletal diseases.

Executives

John R Moore	officer: General Counsel	3200 WALNUT ST, BOULDER CO 80301
Alan J Russell	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	3415 COLORADO AVE, BOULDER CO 80303
Jonathan C Fox	director	C/O MYOKARDIA, INC., 333 ALLERTON AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
R Michael Carruthers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3122 STERLING CIRCLE, SUITE 200, BOULDER CO 80301
Behrad Derakhshan	officer: Chief Business Officer	3415 COLORADO AVE., BOULDER CO 80303
Kevin Koch	director, officer: President and CEO	3200 WALNUT ST, BOULDER CO 80301
Joanne M. Donovan	officer: CMO	C/O CATABASIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQ. BLDG. 1400E SUITE B14202, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Marc Semigran	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O MYOKARDIA, INC., 333 ALLERTON AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Peter A. Thompson	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ANTHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 25801 INDUSTRIAL BOULEVARD, SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Orbimed Capital Gp Vi Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jonathan D Root	director	2735 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
James E Flynn	10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017