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Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Fd (Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Fd) Predictability Rank


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What is Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Fd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

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Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Fd (Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Fd) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Inc Fd (NYSE:ETY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSLX GDV AMK NUV UTG PTY STEP UTF USA PAX BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Two International Place, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Website
https://www.eatonvance.com
Eaton Vance Tax-mgd Dvsf Eq Inc Fd is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its primary investment objective is to provide current income and gains. The secondary objective of the fund is capital appreciation. Its portfolio of investments consists of capital markets, banks, internet and direct marketing retail, biotechnology, media, oil, gas, and consumable fuels, and other sectors.
Executives
Charles Gaffney other: Portfolio Manager TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Douglas R Rogers other: Portfolio Manager TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Anchal Pachnanda officer: Officer TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Williams Ray Kelly Jr officer: President TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Alan C. Bowser other: Trustee TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Nicholas Dilorenzo officer: Secretary TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Nancy A Wiser other: Trustee WELLS FARGO FUNDS MANAGEMENT, 200 BERKELEY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Jill Damon officer: Secretary TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
George R. Nelson officer: Portfolio Manager TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Kimberly M Roessiger officer: Secretary TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Deidre E Walsh officer: Vice President TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Keith Quinton other: Trustee TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Marcus L. Smith other: Trustee 555 17TH STREET, SUITE 3700, DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC., DENVER CO 80202
Froio Richard F Sr officer: Chief Compliance Officer C/O BISYS FUND SERVICES, 60 STATE ST., BOSTON MA 02129
Scott E Wennerholm other: Trustee TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110

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