89bio (ETNB) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is 89bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

89bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

89bio Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of 89bio's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

89bio (ETNB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » 89bio Inc (NAS:ETNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

142 Sansome Street, Second Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104

Website

https://www.89bio.com

89bio Inc is a United States-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of liver and cardio-metabolic diseases. Its product candidate, pegozafermin (previously BIO89-100), a specifically engineered glycoPEGylated analog of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21), is currently being developed for the treatment of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and for the treatment of severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG).

Executives

Kathleen Laporte	director
Rohan Palekar	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	201 SPEAR STREET, THIRD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Atkinson Edward Morrow Iii	director	C/O 89BIO, INC., 142 SANSOME STREET, SECOND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Quoc Le-nguyen	officer: See Remarks	535 MISSION STREET, 14TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Ryan Martins	officer: Chief Financial Officer	535 MISSION STREET, 14TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Michael R Hayden	director	C/O ASPREVA PHARMACEUTICALS CORPORATION, 1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z 7X8
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Nexus Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ram Waisbourd	officer: See Remarks	535 MISSION STREET, 14TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gregory Grunberg	director, 10 percent owner	100 BEAVER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02453
Anat Naschitz	director, 10 percent owner	535 MISSION STREET, 14TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Longitude Capital Partners Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	800 EL CAMINO, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Lota S. Zoth	director	334 CR 692, BUFFALO GAP TX 79508
Steven Altschuler	director	MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION COMPANY, 2701 PATRIOT BLVD, GLENVIEW IL 60026