Elastic NV (Elastic NV) Predictability Rank

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What is Elastic NV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Elastic NV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Elastic NV (Elastic NV) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Elastic NV (NYSE:ESTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ESTC:Mexico 3E1:Germany 3E1:Germany E2ST34:Brazil

Address

Keizersgracht 281, Amsterdam, NH, NLD, 1016 ED

Website

https://www.elastic.co

Elastic is a software company based in Mountain View, California, focusing on search-adjacent products. Its search engine allows it to process both structured and unstructured data while gleaning insights from that data. The firm's primary focus is on enterprise search, observability, and security.

Executives

Alison Gleeson	director	C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Shelley B Leibowitz	director	C/O MORGAN STANLEY, 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Carolyn Herzog	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Ken Exner	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O ELASTIC NV, 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Ashutosh Kulkarni	officer: Chief Executive Officer	6220 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Shay Banon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	C/O ELASTIC NV, 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Janesh Moorjani	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Chetan Puttagunta	director	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Auvil Paul R. Iii	director	C/O PROOFPOINT, INC., 892 ROSS DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Sohaib Abbasi	director	100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Jonathan Chadwick	director	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Garrett W.h. Baird	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Peter H Fenton	director, 10 percent owner	2480 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Paul Andrew Appleby	officer: President, Worldwide Field Ops	C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Steven Schuurman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ELASTIC NV, 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040