ESSA Pharma (ESSA Pharma) Predictability Rank

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What is ESSA Pharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ESSA Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ESSA Pharma (ESSA Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ESSA Pharma Inc (NAS:EPIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

999 West Broadway Street, Suite 720, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V5Z 1K5

Website

https://www.essapharma.com

ESSA Pharma Inc is a pharmaceutical company. The company is focused on the development of small molecule drugs for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer. The company is developing drugs that selectively block the amino-terminal domain of the androgen receptor, potentially overcoming the known AR-dependent resistance mechanisms of CRPC and providing CRPC patients with the potential for increased progression-free and overall survival.

Executives

Peter Virsik	officer: Chief Operating Officer	131 ESCANYO WAY, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
David Ross Parkinson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O THRESHOLD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Franklin M Berger	director	1000 MARINA BLVD, STE 200, BRISBANE CA 94005
Lauren Merendino	director	C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005
David S. Wood	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3516 WEST 33RD AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V6N 2H4
Biotech Growth N V	10 percent owner	ARA HILL TOP BUILDING, UNIT A-5, PLETTERIJWEG OOST 1, CURACAO, WILLEMSTAD P8 000000
Philip W. Kantoff	director	3675 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Bvf Gp Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Ii Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf I Gp Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners Os Ltd.	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Mark N Lampert	10 percent owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Biotechnology Value Fund Ii Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Inc/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners L P/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104