What is Enveric Biosciences Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Enveric Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Enveric Biosciences (Enveric Biosciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4851 Tamiami Trail N, Suite 200, Naples, FL, USA, 34103
Enveric Biosciences Inc is a patient-centric biotechnology company focused on developing new-generation, naturally occurring chemical compounds, such as cannabinoids to improve the lives of those who are adversely affected by the side effects of cancer treatments. Its product in the pipeline includes Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM); Radiation Dermatitis and Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy (CIPN).
Executives
| Frank Pasqualone |
director |
901 GATEWAY BLVD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Kevin Michael Coveney |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
10 CLEVELAND ST, A, SOMERVILLE MA 02143-2606 |
| Robert Iv Dickey |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
320 WEST MERMAID LANE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19118 |
| Bevin O'neil |
director |
C/O ENVERIC BIOSCIENCES, INC.,, 4851 TAMIAMI TRAIL N, SUITE 200, NAPLES FL 34103 |
| Michael D Webb |
director |
C/O EPIX MEDICAL INC, 71 ROGERS ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Bradley George Thompson |
director |
1646 ACTON AVE. SW, CALGARY, ALBERTA Z4 T2T 2P9 |
| Jillian Marie Hagel |
officer: Chief Technical Officer |
3655 36 ST NW, CALGARY, AB Z4 T2L 1Y8 |
| Joseph Edward Tucker |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3655 36 ST NW, CALGARY, AB, Z4 T2L 1Y8 |
| Peter J. Facchini |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
155 RANCHRIDGE DRIVE NW, CALGARY, ALBERTA Z4 T3G 1W1 |
| Carter Julian Ward |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
165 LUDLOW AVE., NORTHVALE NJ 07647 |
| Douglas Lind |
director |
|
| Marcus Schabacker |
director |
ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015 |
| Solomon Mayer |
director |
150 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| David Ian Johnson |
director, officer: CEO and Chairman |
C/O ALLIQUA, INC., 850 3RD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Robert G. Wilkins |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O JAY PHARMA INC., 4851 TAMIAMI TRAIL N, SUITE 200, NAPLES FL 34103 |
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