Enanta Pharmaceuticals (Enanta Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Enanta Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Enanta Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Enanta Pharmaceuticals (Enanta Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ENTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9EP:Germany

Address

500 Arsenal Street, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.enanta.com

Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc is an American biotechnology company focused on the research and development of molecule drugs to cure viral infections and liver diseases. The targeted diseases are hepatitis C, hepatitis B, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and the respiratory syncytial virus. The novelty of company research is a specific direct-acting antiviral inhibitor against the hepatitis C virus. The company's inhibitors have been developed in collaboration with AbbVie. AbbVie markets the protease inhibitor, paritaprevir, while other inhibitors are in the pipeline.

Executives

Terry Vance	director	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Scott T. Rottinghaus	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Brendan Luu	officer: Sr. VP, Business Dev.	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Tara Lynn Kieffer	officer: Sr. VP, New Product Dev.	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Yat Sun Or	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Jay R. Luly	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Nathaniel S. Gardiner	director	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Paul J Mellett	officer: Treasurer and CFO	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Nathalie Adda	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Medical Officer	C/O ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 500 ARSENAL STREET, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Carter Bruce L A	director	C/O ZYMOGENETICS, INC., 1201 EASTLAKE AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98102
Lesley Russell	director	41 MOORES RD., FRAZER PA 19355
Yujiro S Hata	director	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Mark G Foletta	director	AMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 9360 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Kristine Peterson	director	AMARIN CORPORATION, MYSTIC PACKER BLDG., 12 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, MYSTIC CT 06355
George Golumbeski	director	C/O CELGENE CORP., 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901