Emmis (EMMS) Predictability Rank

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What is Emmis Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Emmis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Emmis (EMMS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Emmis Corp (OTCPK:EMMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

40 Monument Circle, Suite 700, One EMMIS Plaza, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46204

Website

https://www.emmis.com

Emmis Corp, formerly Emmis Communications Corp is a diversified media company principally focused on radio broadcasting. The company owns and operates radio and magazine entities in large and medium-sized markets throughout the United States. Its operations have aligned into two business segments: Radio and Publishing. A vast majority of revenue is generated from the Radio segment. The company generates revenue in the form of Advertising; Circulation, which includes revenues from digital and home delivery subscriptions; Nontraditional, which includes ticket sales and sponsorship of events on their stations and magazine conduct; LMA(Local Marketing Agreement) Fees; and other revenues.

Executives

Patrick M Walsh	officer: President, COO	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Ryan A Hornaday	officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Gregory T Loewen	officer: President - Publishing	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Jeffrey H Smulyan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman,CEO, other: member of 10% 13(d) group
J. Scott Enright	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
James M Dubin	director	ONE MADISON PLACE, HARRISON NY 10528
Greg Nathanson	director
Lawrence B Sorrel	director
Peter A Lund	director	236 LOCHA DRIVE, JUPITER FL 33458
Susan B Bayh	director	WELLPOINT, INC., 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Richard A Leventhal	director
Paul V. Brenner	officer: President	40 MONUMENT CIRCLE, SUITE 700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Gary L Kaseff	director
Richard F Cummings	officer: Radio Division President
Herbert Simon	other: Member of 10% owner 13d group	115 W WASHINGTON ST, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204