Elicio Therapeutics (Elicio Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Elicio Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Elicio Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Elicio Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Elicio Therapeutics (Elicio Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Elicio Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ELTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9HA:Germany

Address

One Kendall Square, Building 1400 West, Suite 14303, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.elicio.com

Elicio Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering the development of cancer immunotherapies for patients with limited treatment options and poor outcomes. Its proprietary Amphiphile, or AMP, platform delivers investigational immunotherapeutics directly to the brain center of the immune system the lymph nodes. Its focus is the development of cancer immunotherapies against biologically validated but hard-to-drug targets that can be activated through lymph node trafficking. Elicio is engineering lymph node-targeted AMPlifiers, immunomodulators, adjuvants, and vaccines for an array of aggressive cancers.

Executives

Yekaterina Chudnovsky	director	C/O ELICIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 451 D STREET, 5TH FLOOR, SUITE 501, BOSTON MA 02210
Robert R Ruffolo	director
Peter Demuth	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ELICIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 451 D STREET, 5TH FLOOR, SUITE 501, BOSTON MA 02210
Assaf Segal	director	C/O ELICIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 451 D STREET, 5TH FLOOR, SUITE 501, BOSTON MA 02210
Annette Matthies	officer: Chief Business Officer	ONE KENDALL SQUARE, BUILDING 1400 WEST, SUITE 14303, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Robert Connelly	director, officer: CEO, President and Director	1/3 HIGH-TECH VILLAGE, GIVAT RAM, P.O. BOX 39264, JERUSALEM L3 9139102
Julian Adams	director	C/O GAMIDA CELL, 673 BOYLSTON STREET, 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Christopher Haqq	officer: See Remarks	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 3260 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Carol Gail Ashe	director	C/O APTOSE BIOSCIENCES INC., 251 CONSUMERS ROAD, SUITE 1105, TORONTO A6 M2J 4R3
Brian Piekos	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Karen J Wilson	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Gilbert S Omenn	director	AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Gregory S Curhan	officer: See Remarks	600 CALIFORNIA STREET, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Itzhak Goldberg	officer: See Remarks	51 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLDV., UNIONDALE NY 11553
John F. Neylan	officer: See Remarks	750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022