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DynaResource (DynaResource) Predictability Rank


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What is DynaResource Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DynaResource Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DynaResource Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DynaResource's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

DynaResource (DynaResource) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » DynaResource Inc (OTCPK:DYNR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NMEX SILS AUMN AHNR MAGE THMG SRGZ CGLD AMNP ACRG ISX:AMMN JSE:AMS SZSE:000975 MIC:ALRS LSE:FRES JSE:IMP ISX:MBMA LIM:BUENAVC1 TSX:TFPM HL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
222 West Las Colinas Boulevard, Suite 1910 North Tower, Irving, TX, USA, 75039
Website
http://www.dynaresource.com
DynaResource Inc is a minerals investment, management, and exploration company. It is primarily conducting test mining and pilot milling operations through an operating subsidiary in Mexico, with a specific focus on precious and base metals. The firm explores gold, silver, and other valuable minerals. It has only one segment that is Mexico. The company's flagship property is the San Jose de Gracia project, which consists of several mining concessions.
Executives
Matthew K Rose 10 percent owner 2650 LOU MENK DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76131
Gareth Nichol 10 percent owner 5 GREENRIDGE ROAD, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Golden Post Rail, Llc 10 percent owner 1110 POST OAK PLACE, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Phillip A. Rose director 222 W. LAS COLINAS BLVD., SUITE 744 EAST TOWER, IRVING TX 75039
Koy W Diepholz director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 222 W. LAS COLINAS BLVD., SUITE 1910 NORTH TOWER, IRVING TX 75039
Charles Smith director, officer: CFO 1541 E. INTERSTATE 30, #140, ROCKWALL TX 75087
Melvin E Tidwell director 222 W. LAS COLINAS BLVD., SUITE 744 EAST TOWER, IRVING TX 75039
Bradford J Saulter officer: VP Public Relations 222 W. LAS COLINAS BLVD., SUITE 744 EAST TOWER, IRVING TX 75039