Dawson Geophysical Co (Dawson Geophysical Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Dawson Geophysical Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dawson Geophysical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dawson Geophysical Co (Dawson Geophysical Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Dawson Geophysical Co (NAS:DWSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RVS1:Germany

Address

508 West Wall, Suite 800, Midland, TX, USA, 79701

Website

https://www.dawson3d.com

Dawson Geophysical Co is a provider of onshore seismic data acquisition services with operations throughout the continental United States and Canada. The company acquires and processes 2 D, 3 D, and multi-component seismic data for clients, ranging from oil and gas companies to independent oil and gas operators for use in the onshore drilling and production of oil and natural gas as well as provides multi-client data libraries. It operates through a single segment being Contract seismic data acquisition and processing services. In addition, the company provides multi-component seismic data surveys which involve the recording of alternative seismic waves. Geographically, it generates maximum revenue from the United States.

Executives

William Anthony Clark	officer: EVP & Chief Business Officer	13927 S. GESSNER RD, MISSOURI CITY TX 77489
Wilks Brothers, Llc	10 percent owner	17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Bruce Franklin Bradley	director	3815 BRADLEY LANE, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Wb Acquisitions Inc.	10 percent owner	17010 INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 20, CISCO TX 76437
Matthew Wilks	director	17010 IH-20, CISCO TX 76437
Staci Wilks	10 percent owner	17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Farris Wilks	10 percent owner	17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Dan H. Wilks	10 percent owner	17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Sergei Krylov	director	6500 WEST FREEWAY, SUITE 800, FORT WORTH TX 76116
C Ray Tobias	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	508 WEST WALL SUITE 800, MIDLAND TX 79701
Stephen C Jumper	director, officer: President and CEO	508 WEST WALL, SUITE 800, MIDLAND TX 79701
James W Thomas	officer: EVP, Chief Technical Officer	508 W WALL, SUITE 800, MIDLAND TX 79701
William J Barrett	director	210 SUNDIAL COURT, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Michael L Klofas	director	64 WINDHAM DRIVE, EAST LONGMEADOW MA 01028
Allen T Mcinnes	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board & Secy.	4532 7TH STREET, LUBBOCK TX 79416