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Datasea (Datasea) Predictability Rank


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What is Datasea Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Datasea Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Datasea Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Datasea's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Datasea (Datasea) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Datasea Inc (NAS:DTSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
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Traded in Other Exchanges
AQC0:Germany
Address
1 Ronghua South Road, 20th Floor, Tower B, Guorui Plaza, Technological Development Zone, Beijing, CHN, 100176
Website
http://www.dataseainc.com
Datasea Inc is a development stage company engaged in Internet security products. Its offers service and products such as Internet Security Equipment, New Media Advertising Service, Micro Marketing Service, Internet Service Provider (ISP) Connecting Service, Big Data Processing Service. The business activity of the group functions through China.
Executives
Yan Yang director RM 112, DRAGON COURT, 100 WATERLOO ROAD, KOWLOON K3 NONE
Chunqi Jiao officer: CTO 130 CHIANGJIANG ROAD, NANGANG DISTRICT, HARBIN F4 150090
Fu Liu director, 10 percent owner 1 XINGHUO RD, CHANGNING BUILDING, STE 21BC1, FENGTAI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100070
Zhixin Liu director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 1 XINGHUO RD, CHANGNING BUILDING, STE, 21BC1, FENGTAI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100070
Chun Kwok Wong director 1 XINGHUO RD CHANGNING BLDG, 11TH FLOOR FENGTAI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100070
Mingzhou Sun officer: Chief Financial Officer 20TH FLOOR, TOWER B, GUORUI PLAZA, 1 RONGHUA S. RD, TECHNOLOGICAL DEVT ZONE, BEIJING F4 100176
Michael J. Antonoplos director 345 STRATHMORE DRIVE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010-1262
Ling Wang director 1 XINGHUO RD CHANGNING BLDG, 11TH FLOOR FENGTAI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100070
Tongjun Si director 1 XINGHUO RD CHANGNING BLDG, 11TH FLOOR FENGTAI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100070
Jijin Zhang officer: Chief Financial Officer 1 XINGHUO RD. CHANGNING BUILDING, 11TH FLOOR FENGTAI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100070