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DP Cap Acquisition I (DP Cap Acquisition I) Predictability Rank


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What is DP Cap Acquisition I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DP Cap Acquisition I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DP Cap Acquisition I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DP Cap Acquisition I (DP Cap Acquisition I) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » DP Cap Acquisition Corp I (NAS:DPCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
EGGF NNAG PORT PWUP HWEL BLUA CBRG CHAA TGAA SLAC PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
341 Newbury Street, 6th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02115
Website
https://www.datapointcapital.com
DP Cap Acquisition Corp I is a blank check company.
Executives
Bruce Revzin officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O DP CAP ACQUISITION CORP I, 341 NEWBURY STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02115
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc. 10 percent owner 16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6
Daniel Patrick Lynch officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O DP CAP ACQUISITION CORP I, 341 NEWBURY STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02115
Leonard A Schlesinger director THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Scott L Savitz director, 10 percent owner C/O DP CAP ACQUISITION CORP I, ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Data Point Capital Iii-q, L.p. director, 10 percent owner ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Data Point Capital Iii, L.p. director, 10 percent owner ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Martin Guillermo Zinny director, officer: CEO, CFO C/O DP CAP ACQUISITION CORP I, ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Lars Lawrence Albright director C/O DP CAP ACQUISITION CORP I, ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210
Data Point Partners Iii, Llc director, 10 percent owner ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02210

DP Cap Acquisition I (DP Cap Acquisition I) Headlines

From GuruFocus

DP Cap Acquisition Corp I Announces the Separate Trading of its Class A Ordinary Shares and Warrants, Commencing December 30, 2021

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 12-23-2021