Doximity (Doximity) Predictability Rank

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What is Doximity Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Doximity Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Doximity (Doximity) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Doximity Inc (NYSE:DOCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 3rd Street, Suite 510, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.doximity.com

Doximity Inc is a digital platform for U.S. medical professionals. Its cloud-based platform provides members with tools specifically built for medical professionals, enabling them to collaborate with their colleagues, securely coordinate patient care, conduct virtual patient visits, stay up-to-date with the latest medical news and research, and manage their careers.

Executives

Kira Scherer Wampler	director	C/O DOXIMITY, INC., 500 3RD STREET, SUITE 510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Craig Overpeck	officer: See Remarks	C/O DOXIMITY, INC., 500 THIRD STREET, SUITE 510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Timothy S Cabral	director	C/O VEEVA SYSTEMS INC., 4280 HACIENDA DRIVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Anna Bryson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DOXIMITY, INC., 500 3RD STREET SUITE 510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Yang Watkin Phoebe L.	director	C/O DOXIMITY, INC., 500 THIRD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Jeffrey Tangney	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O DOXIMITY, INC., 500 3RD STREET SUITE 510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Paul W. Jorgensen	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	500 THIRD STREET, SUITE 510, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Gilbert H Kliman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O INTERWEST PARTNERS, 467 FIRST STREET SUITE 201, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Emergence Capital Partners Ii Lp	10 percent owner	160 BOVET ROAD, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Emergence Equity Partners Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	160 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Emergence Gp Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	PIER 5, THE EMBARCADERO, STE 102, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111-2094
Kevin Spain	director	C/O EMERGENCE CAPITAL, 160 BOVET ROAD, STE. 300, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Emergence Capital Opportunity I, L.p.	10 percent owner	160 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Emergence Equity Partners Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O EMERGENCE CAPITAL PARTNERS, 160 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 300 CA SAN MATEO
Regina M. Benjamin	director	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453